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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism World Diary

Post Brexit, India Can Be UK’s America To The East

As in personal life, the need for an all-weather friend in the global polity can never be overstated in the scenario of one having to restart a journey away from the comfort zone – irrespective of the reasons behind the loss of the cosy corner.

The United Kingdom has always had the United States for every such possibility. But in the ever-changing global order, and amid diminishing global power, the UK – especially the post-Brexit UK – could do well to more such friends. Luckily, there is one significant one in the east – India, the jewel in the crown of the erstwhile British Raj.

As per a report released by UK’s Department for International Trade on August 30, the US remained the biggest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the 2015/16 financial year with 570 projects; followed by China with 156 projects.

India, significantly, retained its position as the third largest investor in Britain with 140 projects – out of a total of 2,213 projects in investments by a record 79 countries.

Simultaneously, UK is the largest G20 investor into India, contributing around 8% of India’s FDI.

Mr. Liam Fox, UK’s International Trade Secretary, on his visit to New Delhi and Mumbai, India’s political and financial capitals, on August 30 said that Bilateral relationship between the UK and India has the potential to become a stronger partnership, particularly in trade and investment.

Speaking during his first visit to India since taking up his role, Mr. Fox said:

I wanted to come here early in my time as Secretary of State for International Trade to show how important the new government views our trade partnership with India. This partnership lies at the very heart of the strategic relationship between our two nations, a relationship that has never been more important than it is today.

Mr. Fox, apart from meeting leaders of India’s leading industry bodies like the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), also attended the soft launch of the India-UK TECH Summit. The UK is the country partner for the TECH Summit which showcases British expertise in innovation, technology, and skills to Indian businesses.

Importantly, the visit also served as a preparation for his visit to India later this year to attend the Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO). Addressing the CII, he further said:

“The India-UK Tech Summit in November will be a further celebration of this partnership, where sector experts ranging from smart cities, healthcare, agri-tech and others will come together to boost trade, R&D as well as academic ties between the UK and India.”

With his visit, where he also met India’s Minister for Finance, Mr. Arun Jaitley, there is a renewed enthusiasm about the proposal for an India-U.K. Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

The UK currently has High Commission offices in New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata and trade Offices in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad. The Department for International Development (DfID) works with the state governments of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa.

Aiding the trade bodies is the British Council, which has offices and libraries in eleven cities stretching from Thiruvananthapuram in the south of India to Chandigarh in the north and Ahmedabad in the west to Kolkata in the east.

The thrust on India is not misplaced. India is currently the third largest economy in the world (based on purchasing power parity) and is expected to become the second largest by 2050 when the economy would be 30 times the current size.

A British Council report late in 2015 says, “As its economy is transformed, its political, military and cultural power is also likely to increase, elevating India to a 21st Century superpower”.

Former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and current Conservative government minister Mr. Jim O’Neill, the British economist who had coined the acronym BRICS, has often said that “India will soon be ‘one of the biggest influences on the world’. It is looking for new partners in the global race. This represents a great opportunity for the UK“.

The opportunity would, however, need to be actively tapped by the UK (and indeed by India). The British Council report advises the UK to “continue to up its game if it is to take advantage of India’s rise”.

Currently, Indians account for more than half of UK’s total 93,935 skilled work visas granted, much ahead of the US, which accounted for around 11 percent.

As per a BBC report on the ‘India UK Links’, Indian companies are playing an increasingly important role in the UK economy. “Tata Group, for example, is one of the UK’s largest manufacturing employers, with some 65,000 employees in the UK.”

Nearly 1.5 million citizens of Indian origin make up the UK population, making it the largest ethnic minority group in the UK and the seventh greatest Indian diaspora in the world.

Half a million Indians tourists visit the UK every year, while nearly the same (400,000) Britons visit India.

Age-old overlap of culture, history, and language with India already give the UK a reliable foundation upon which future relations between the two nations can be permanently deepened. India’s burgeoning English-speaking middles class offers the most friendly opening for the UK to become India’s partner of choice for diplomatic, trade, cultural, and education relations. Before the Indian story is courted by other nations, those factors can add to the opportunity for the UK to make inroads into India’s civil society, research, education, and the creative sector.

Most importantly, quite like the US, the Indo-UK partnership can rest assured on the very concrete edifice of both being thriving, liberal, and multi-cultural democracies. That means that the relationship cannot be marred by the whims and fancies of a closed system like, for example, that of China.

The need is for an open heart and active feet.

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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism Sport

The Two Things England Need to Do at Old Trafford

This sports journalism piece was first published on Huffington Post (UK) here.

The second Test between England and Pakistan beginning tomorrow (July 22) at Old Trafford has acquired a strange tension, which is vastly more intense and different from the buzz surrounding the crowd reaction to Mohammed Amir’s return to the stage where he had let the cricketing world down.

The ill feeling, amazingly, has nothing to do with what happened on the pitch for a fluctuating four days, at the end of which Pakistan won by 75 tension runs. What got England’s goat was the visitors’ showmanship after the fall of the last English wicket, in front of thousands of English supporters. The reaction to the act from the host gallery was swift – especially from pacer Tim Bresnan and captain Alastair Cook, who said it would work as a motivation for his team.

But giving the post-match box-office fireworks a miss, one of the reasons why Alastair Cook & Co. lost was because they never believed they were going to lose the test – neither at the beginning of the match nor when they were given a target of 283 to chase in the fourth innings.

And there was a good reason for the confidence. They had just routed Sri Lanka in an easy series win. Add to it their impressive home record in tests this decade.

But they lost – to their own “naive batting”, as Cook put it, and Yasir Shah, in that order. Unless they make a few changes, the result could be repeated.

Play Yasir Positively; Play Seamers Aggressively

There is a difference between ‘going after’ a spinner and playing a spinner with the ‘best foot’. So, the case of Moeen Ali’s horrendous dart at Yasir and Gary Ballance jumping on the sides and getting bowled behind the legs are both prime examples of how not to play a spinner. Jonny Bairstow going to the back foot and getting bowled to a flipper by Yasir is also a form of going after the bowler – because the underlying assumption is that the batsman has got the bowler on the mat and that he can cut the bowler any time.

And yet, the idea is not the opposite – to try to block Yasir away. That was the other extreme that was tried by the English batsmen during the course of the match. Unfortunately for them, they found out that it can’t work for a period spread over 40 overs in an innings.

The best way to play a spinner, as any batting coach would tell you, is to rotate the strike. Yes, with many men around the bat, it isn’t always the easiest of things to do. But that’s when footwork comes into play – something that you ought to possess in a decent amount if you are deemed good enough by your country to face wrist or finger spinners from the Indian subcontinent. A decent footwork allows a batsman to move about the crease while, importantly, covering the stumps in such a way that LBW is taken out of the equation.

Pace bowlers need rhythm to succeed; spinners need that, and a lot of space.

Yasir aside, there is no need to give undue respect to the seam bowlers. If England has to succeed, the batsmen would have to tackle Pakistani pacers aggressively. It should not be impossible for a team that is more used to the mix of pace and swing than most Test-playing nations.

In other words, play Yasir positively and the Pakistani seamers even more so.

Unlock the Resources

James Anderson, who was the world’s number one Test bowler before Yasir Shah overtook him with his exploits at Lords, and Ben Stokes are expected to walk straight into the side after their time out due to injury – replacing Jacob Ball and Steven Finn respectively.

But England needs to bring Adil Rashid in for Moeen Ali – and not just for the ‘that’ shot by the latter in the second innings. Pakistan is filled with right-handers and therefore leggie Rashid offers a much better option than Moeen. Also, Rashid has the confidence of rattling the Pakistani batting line-up once, barely six months ago in Dubai. And he can bat a bit too.

On the other hand, with the pitch at Old Trafford traditionally being receptive to spin bowling, there is a case for playing both of them – at the expense of, perhaps, James Vince. In all honesty, it is a toss-up between Vince and Gary Ballance. But left-handed Ballance should be a better counter to the leg spin of Yasir. Also, he has a better record of the two.

But the most vital part of managing the above resources is the need to unlock – or unclutter – the resources.

Alex Hales, in all fairness, is not going to play for four sessions of a test match in this series. Give him the freedom to express himself without self-doubts about his role as an opener.

The same for Joe Root. He got so bogged down under the pressure of expectations after the departure of Cook in the second innings that it ultimately led to his dismissal. It’s time to remind him that he alone is not expected to win it for England.

On top of that, England will have to fight fire with fire when it comes to expressing it on the field. Get into the Ashes mindset and give it back to the opponent. Most English players would be able to do more push-ups than their Pakistani counterparts. Let it show in the middle.

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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism

Shamed Mourinho Has Unleashed a Beast

The article first appeared on The Huffington Post (UK) here

Chelsea supporters could be forgiven for thinking that in hindsight, the embarrassment of that humiliating FA Cup Round 4 loss to Bradford could well be the most timely potion that destiny could have provided Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho. For a coach who is not the biggest advocate of player rotation, slightly less tired legs of his chosen few could well prove to be the difference in May.

But the script played out slightly differently on a tempestuous Tuesday night – and every limb of the Blue army found itself drained completely out of the last ounce of juice after a massively physical 120 minutes of battle with Liverpool in the second leg of League Cup semi final.

It couldn’t have taken any less to book a place in the March 6 final at Wembley.

If blood and sheer guts in the matches of recent years between these bitter rivals is said to be a legacy of Luis Garcia’s ghost goal in the Champions League semi-final in 2005, this was raising it a notch higher.

Despite Mourinho asking his supporters to stay clear of abusive chants about Steven Gerrard, a bit of that could be heard even before the first kick of the match. The visiting stands fell not much behind in letting the world know what they thought of Costa. Mourinho clashed furiously with the officials over many decisions; the two benches clashed occasionally; the referee clearly lost the plot by a series of curious decisions (including a clear penalty shout against Skrtel’s tackle on Costa); and the players ran, tackled, fell, rose up, shot and ran like this was the last match ever to be played.

Each one of the 38 tackles by Liverpool and 28 by Chelsea was hard and uncompromising – nine of which led to yellow cards. It was breathless tenacity and steel at show in every corner of the pitch.

The nature and intensity of the game was summed up in typical Mourinho style after the match when he praised the game’s only goal scorer Branislav Ivanovic:

‘He has lots of blood and the boot is completely full of red blood and it should go straight to the (Chelsea youth) academy.’

Yes, it was that kind of the match.

Almost entirely because the Chelsea team that took the field were clear in the head: Either we play great football and win or we play our last football and win. They managed the former in flashes, but eventually won because Liverpool couldn’t climb and cross the possessed Chelsea bodies.

Brendon Rogers believes otherwise and almost accused Chelsea of playing it bad. In his post-match interaction with media, he said that Chelsea striker Diego Costa ‘doesn’t need to stamp he’s top class’ – a barely veiled dig at the fiery Spaniard for two incidents of, what it looked on camera, deliberate stamping by him. The Liverpool bench believed that the Costa’s studs on Emre Can and Martin Skrtel were worthy of red card.

Mourinho appeared to be livid with that interpretation. But he couldn’t have cared less really. As Petr Cech put it before the match, tonight was a chance ‘to clean up the mess’. The world cannot expect a Bradford to beat Mourinho’s team at home and the team to not react. And further reaction there would be – as January 31 promises the season-deciding showdown in the Premier League.

Current league holders Manchester City should not be surprised if on January 31 they meet a Chelsea team that plays both freely because it is relieved of some pressure and angrily because it feels that the world is responsible for its defeat at the hands of Bradford in FA Cup.

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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism

English Cricket is Losing the Plot

The article first appeared on The Huffington Post (UK) here

It would have been okay if it were just about losing a test match to India at Lords Cricket Ground after 28 years. What should worry the mandarins of the game in its country of birth, however, is the complete lack of purpose and direction of the current team.

Saddled with a captain who is trying to stay put on a slippery slope, the current English team represents everything opposite to the adrenaline-pumping romance of the ‘class of 2005’ that beat the mighty Australians – in what was clearly the best Ashes series of this century, and one of the best series played between any two teams of all times.

Is Moeen Ali the best spinner that England has got – in a series involving the master players of spin no less? If yes, then they might as well play with no spinners, at least against India. But then, he is actually a batsman too. So, is he a middle-order batsman who can either single-handedly save or win the match for England?

And Ben Stokes? If he were into playing cards, three ducks together might have been a good dig. Or, wait; is he in the team for his bowling? Some say he can be a poor man’s Paul Collingwood. Is that the vision?

Similarly, was Michael Atherton right in saying that “a significant English career might have come to an end”, when Matt Prior departed after playing that rather aimless pull shot – of a ball way outside the off stump? Atherton didn’t even mention the 36 byes that Prior let slip through and about his gloves. Did the ECB anticipate such a development so early in the series?

At the beginning of the series, only the ECB and God knew the answers to all of those questions. Now, only God knows.

The point is not about the performance of those two. It may not even be about the approach of ECB towards filling those key slots. Because it would be safe to assume that the English board would not have any reason to go for these players but for the belief that that’s the best it has got.

That, I’m afraid, is the scarier part. There are three more tests to go. Senior pros like Anderson, Broad and Bell – and who knows, even Cook – can still crank up a notch and win something for the team.

But that would merely be putting a blanket over the less than adequate other half portion of the team.

How did things come to such a pass so drastically soon? Wasn’t this the number 1 test team till very recently?

There are either no easy answers or many obvious answers to every crisis question.

English cricket is not sure what it considers cricket! Though England won a T20 World Cup, it neither celebrated it (contrast it with the mind-numbing excess after India’s victory in the inaugural T20 WC), nor built upon it. The lesser said the better about its approach towards the 50-over version of the game. People here in India believe that England does not even want to play the shorter version. And no, the feeling has got nothing to do with the clash of boards about IPL.

But test cricket is its thing. And yet, it is letting itself down on that front too – primarily because of abysmal handling of players. So while a precocious talent like Pietersen is out “because of attitude problems”, players have been leaving the game because of psychological stress. No offence meant, but ask an Indian player what pressure is. Or closer home to English cricketers, ask what Wayne Rooney, John Terry feel like.

We are not even talking about the abrupt retirements of Strauss and Swann.

Where is the player management?

The immediate task for England is simple – do not allow India to win any more tests in the series, and win at least one for itself. However, the bigger challenge would be to prepare a team that wears its heart on its sleeve – just like in 2005. With or without import of talent from South Africa.

Unless Jim Laker would forever be proved correct for his words, “The aim of English cricket is, in fact, mainly to beat Australia.” In that case, be ready for MS Dhoni and his men heap further misery on this English team in the tests ahead.

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Asia Times Online India Journalism

India Beware: Bangladesh is Staring at Anarchy

The article first appeared on Asia Times Online here.

With no end in sight to political turmoil rooted in historic conflicts and sectarianism, Bangladesh is edging closer each day to chaos.

The overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) in January 5 parliamentary elections did little to ease the tense situation.

Terming the current government “illegal”, the Begum Khalida Zia led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the country’s largest opposition party, has vowed to unseat the government “with a popular movement”.

Because of a mass boycott of the poll by all major opposition parties, 153 of the 232 seats won by the Awami League in the recent elections were uncontested. The opposition had demanded that the vote was held under a neutral caretaker government – a condition ended due to a constitutional amendment forced through in 2011 by Hasina’s administration.

Hundreds of people died across Bangladesh in political violence in the run-up to the latest polls, with normal life ended by blockades of roads, railways and waterways and the closure of shops, schools and offices by the opposition. A reported 20 people died on the day of the vote and more than 100 polling stations were torched by violent mobs.

The election-related mayhem came close on the heels of violence related to an ongoing tribunal International Crimes Tribunal which is investigating “war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide” committed by the Pakistan army and their local collaborators during the 1971 war of independence.

The ICT drew international headlines in February 2013 when the Shahbagh movement – named after a major intersection in Dhaka where thousands of people gathered in a protest – demanded the execution of all those convicted by the ICT and the creation of a secular Bangladesh.

Most collaborators implicated in the trial belong to the second largest opposition party, Jamaat-e-Islami. Because the ICT plans to prosecuting JeT leaders for war crimes in 1971, Islamists have also been on the rampage across the nation.

On May 5, thousands of madrassa teachers, students and sympathizers laid siege to Dhaka in support of the Hefazat-e-Islam (“Protectors of Islam”), a radical Islamic movement that demands, among other things, a ban on the public mixing of men and women and the criminalization of “kafirs” (non-believers). This led to violent clashes between protesters and security forces, resulting in many deaths.

Meanwhile, convictions against Jamaat leaders led the Bangladesh Supreme Court on August 1 2013 to declare the registration of the party illegal – effectively barring it from contesting elections.

The mayhem hit its nadir on December 12 when one of the Jamaat leaders, Abdul Qader Mollah, was hanged being sentenced to death by the ICT. Mollah, known as the “Butcher of Mirpur”, who supported his party’s stand against the creation of Bangladesh, was accused of colluding with the Pakistani military in a killing and raping spree of Bengalis over an eight-month period.

While the Shahbagh and Hefazat protests did not give birth to the current election violence, they add to the deadly mix of historical and sectarian fault lines that are currently simmering in Bangladesh. These have turned the country into a free-for-all battlefield of politico-ideologies.

The first, most direct consequence of the strife has been on the economy. Bangladesh’s GDP growth shrunk to 6% last year, down from 6.7% in 2011 – and is expected to contract further because of the prevailing state of affairs.

A good part of the slowdown was caused because of the impact the violence has had on Bangladesh’s garment industry. Making 80% of the country’s total exports, garment exports stood at US$21.5 billion in 2013, up steeply from $9.2 billion six years ago.

But orders are now declining quickly from world markets – diverted to mainly India and some portions to China and Pakistan – mostly because of non-timely delivery by Bangladesh factories whose trucks were stuck on highways for days because of the violence. Many fear that the displaced orders may now never return to Bangladesh.

Four million people are employed with Bangladesh Garment Manufactures and Exporters Association member companies, of which 80% are women, and a majority of whom belong to the “disadvantaged” sections of the society.

That is sure to slow down, if not halt, a commendable run of poverty reduction in the previous decade, which saw the percentage of poor people in this eighth most populous country in the world reduce to 32% in 2010 from an enormous 58% in 1990-91.

The turmoil is also going to worsen Bangladesh’s standing on critical matters such as Generalized System of Preferences (a US government program that provides preferential duty-free entry for up to 5,000 products) and continued (garment) orders from and lower import duties in Europe, which is especially stringent in matters concerning freedom of speech and politics, and human rights of workers.

With men in uniform being stretched to their limit internally, the country’s ability to send military forces for United Nations peacekeeping operations too are likely to be affected – putting at risk significant foreign currency revenue.

Unfortunately, nothing of that is stopping the key players from holding back.

Yet the government is not releasing its iron grip on its opponents. Apart from Khalida Zia’s virtual house arrest, Mohammad Hossain Ershad, a former army general who had come to power in 1982 after a bloodless coup and who now leads the third-biggest party, Jatiyo, too is under restraining orders in an army hospital since he announced of joining the latest poll boycott.

Also, the Sheikh Hasina government is also being accused of harassing media and civil society members. As per a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report, “[T]he government shut down opposition media early in 2013 and continues to target human rights advocacy groups and arrest prominent activists.”

Or, in other words, from politics, economy and human rights to the human development index, every marker of the nation’s well-being is under severe stress. 

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Journalism World Diary

Nagorno-Karabakh as a Reference Point for Stability in the Greater Caucasus, 2013-14

INTRODUCTION

Two decades of international community-administered talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijani territory, have failed to reach a resolution. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s petro-dollar-aided exponential increase in defence expenditure amid pitched rabble-rousing and frequent sniper skirmishes in the region has led many to fear that the disputed landlocked mountainous enclave in the Greater Caucasus could be one of the most likely sites of Europe’s next war. The sense was reiterated on March 28 by Arayik Haroutiounian, the secessionist enclave’s prime minister, who said in Paris that Azerbaijan and Armenia are unlikely to reach a deal this year and there is a risk of the region sliding towards war.

But is peace such an imminent casualty in Nagorno-Karabakh, and by extension in the Greater Caucasus?

THE REGION

The Caucasus is largely a mountainous region lying between the Black Sea in the west and the Caspian Sea in the east, and is situated where Europe and Asia converge. Running from the west-northwest to the east-southeast are two parallel mountain chains: the Greater Caucasus and the Lesser Caucasus. While the mountainous terrain in itself impedes navigable waterways for trade and continuous stretch of arable land for large societies, the Caucasus region on the whole offers as much natural and strategic advantage as any comparable region in the world.

High peaks with glaciers and permanent snow nourish river streams that water plains both to the north and the south, where a variety of crops can be grown and livestock grazed. The ample river activity cut innumerable deep valleys into the Greater Caucasus range, resulting in those distinct, protected shelters getting occupied by a host of minority groups. Over a period of a couple of centuries, socially cohesive groups of countless ethnicity got firmly entrenched in their respective – and self-sufficient – valleys and fiercely resisted any outside interference.

But outside interest, and the resulting conflicts, could not be avoided by the region because of a host of reasons. The Caspian Sea on the east provides an easy waterway to Central Asia and, via the Volga, to the heart of Russia. The Black Sea provides a sea link to Turkey, Ukraine, the Balkans, and through the Turkish Straits to the Mediterranean region. Importantly, vantage position in the region allowed both opportunity for and defence against transcontinental (Central Asia-Europe) expansionist designs of the powers that were – like the Ottoman Empire and Russia.

That strategic aspect gets exploited even in the present era.

Currently, the region is critical to the United States and NATO’s military interests.

For example, the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) played an important role in transporting the United States and NATO supplies out of Afghanistan when in November 2011 Islamabad closed supply routes between Pakistan and Afghanistan following a United States airstrike that accidentally killed 24  Pakistani troops.

The Caucasus has also been noted for its mineral wealth since ancient times. In the previous century, Azerbaijan’s oil fuelled much of the USSR’s economy during the Soviet period. Today, the region is a critical energy corridor for hydrocarbon resources en route to Europe from the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Three of the four major pipelines that transport Azerbaijani oil and gas to Europe lie close to the front line positions of Armenian and Azerbaijani forces stationed along both the Line-of-Contact between Azerbaijan and the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. In the event of a fresh war over Nagorno-Karabakh, these pipelines could become early targets for Armenian artillery, hitting Europe’s goal of diversifying its energy supply.

NAGORNO-KARABKH: INTRODUCTION

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked secessionist enclave in the Greater Caucasus that is a subject of dispute between Azerbaijan, in which it lies, the Armenian ethnic majority of the enclave, and neighbouring Armenia.

With the roots of the conflict said to be dating back well over a century into the rivalry between Christian Armenian and Muslim Turkic and Persian influences, the history of Nagorno-Karabakh is the subject of furious argument between Armenian and Azeri historians about the original inhabitants of the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh claimed its independence for the first time during the first Congress of the Armenians of Karabakh in 1918. Following the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, Soviet Union’s leader Joseph Stalin in 1921 put the region of Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. The region came to be known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in 1923.

Though disputes were commonplace between Armenians and Azerbaijanis about the way the autonomy of the region was exercised in the NKAO, the smouldering frictions exploded into violence only in 1988 when the enclave’s legislature cited historical and ethnic reasons to pass a resolution in 1988 to join Armenia – a request that was swiftly denied by Moscow on the grounds of Azeri territorial integrity. In the same year, anti-Armenian pogroms occurred in Sumgait, and Armenians started getting expulsed from Azerbaijan.

Once the Soviet Union collapsed, Nagorno-Karabakh’s legislature unilaterally proclaimed their independence in 1991 and the enclave became a de facto republic (which no world body recognises as yet) – leading up to a full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1992. Within months, the Armenian army controlled the bulk of NagornoKarabakh and pushed further into Azerbaijani territory to establish the so-called Lachin Corridor, an umbilical cord linking the breakaway enclave with Armenia mainland. By 1993, Armenian forces had occupied nearly 20% of the Azerbaijani territory surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and expelled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azeris. A year later, Russia brokered ceasefire between the two countries, which is where things stand at the moment.

As per a 1994 study by Human Rights Watch, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in an estimated 25,000 dead as well as around one million refugees and Internally Displaced People (IDP) on both sides.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH: THE REGIONAL ASPECT

Apart from Armenia and Azerbaijan (and the geographical areas of Nagorno-Karabakh), Turkey, Russia and Iran play a significant role in the dispute.

Turkey, which is accused by Armenia of the ‘Great Crime’ (the 1915 massacre of over a million Armenians by Ottoman Turks), shares a ‘one nation-two states’ doctrine with Azerbaijan because of the cultural similarities between the two. Consequently, the Turkish government has been participating in the conflict through military cooperation with the Azerbaijanis and declared a blockade on Armenia in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan. Turkey has been refusing to re-open diplomatic relations and its border with Armenia until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved.

On the other hand, Russia is linked to Armenia by cooperation treaties, especially the 1997 treaty of friendship between both countries, which guarantees the support of Russia to Armenia in case the latter is subjected to foreign attacks.

The remaining major regional actor in the dispute is Iran, which has economic interests in the region and which, like Russia, wants to keep Western countries away from the region. Despite being an Islamic state, Iran has been a major partner for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and has helped the two fight the economic blockade enforced by Azerbaijan and Turkey after the war.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH: PEACE PROCESS AND THE CHALLENGES

Since 1994, there have been a number of attempts to broker peace by the so-called Minsk Group, a subset of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) chaired by Russia, the United States, and France. The Minsk group is currently working towards making the warring sides agree on the Madrid principles of 2010 which would include that (1) Armenian forces leave the occupied territories outside Nagorno-Karabakh, (2) an interim status is granted to Nagorno-Karabakh until a self-determination referendum, (3) the return of IDPs and refugees, (4) the establishment of a corridor linking Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh in Lachin with the presence of peacekeeping forces.

One of the biggest obstacles to the signing of a peace treaty is the issue of sequencing: Azerbaijan wants Armenia to end its occupation first and withdraw its forces before discussing the republic’s final status; Armenia is seeking a resolution first on the status question before pulling out its forces; Nagorno-Karabakh wants its independence officially recognized prior to all other negotiations.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH: FORECAST 2013-14

While stubborn stances of the warring actors based upon ethnic and historical arguments and applicable competing principles of international law – the right of self-determination and territorial integrity – promise to make the coming years equally difficult for a negotiated agreement, the oft-repeated talk of a fresh war may not match up with the realities of limited abilities of the warring states to win a war outright, and dependence of external actors, notably the United States, Russia and Europe, on continued status-quo, if not negotiated peace, towards serving their economic and geopolitical interests in the region.

Given that hypothesis, there is a possibility of the following scenarios developing in the coming year (2013-14):

The United States, Russia and Europe expand their cooperative efforts in facilitating the resolution of a conflict towards pre-empting any threat to their respective interests in the Greater Caucasus. The efforts could rescue the U.S.-Russian ‘reset’, and signal a new era of European-Russian cooperation.

Sustained pressure at home in the wake of opinion surveys showing high levels of discontent in Armenia about corruption, poverty, and abuse of power could force Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to divert (at least a tiny) part of the military and economic resources from Nagorno-Karabakh – without changing the official stance on the dispute – to public welfare schemes in Armenia.

President Ilham Aliev of Azerbaijan could up the rabble-rousing ahead of the October presidential elections, without walking the talk on the ground – both because of the dangers of getting into a war that he cannot win at the moment, and the prospects of a harsh response from the international community making his own position vulnerable at home.

As a lead up to the 20th anniversary of truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan, international rights groups could lead a sustained campaign at world bodies to force the two-nation take more action on the issue of the internally displaced people.

CONCLUSION

The ‘frozen conflict’ of Nagorno-Karabakh presents itself as an ideal case study for the Greater Caucasus region – and indeed other conflict zones of similar nature in Europe and elsewhere – to understand the conflict between ethnic minority groups’ fierce attachment to their socio-historical and geographical identities and modern world’s need for enforcement of legal principles. The conflict in this case is not about resources but is about identity – something that cannot be divided.

There are no easy political solutions to such complex disputes. While all-round mediation efforts by neutral parties should be encouraged, the effectiveness of those efforts is hostage to a host of internal, global, political, ability and intent issues. On the other hand, the welfare of the affected people – directly, as opposed to a trickle effect via the state – in a visibly unbiased and meaningful manner could provide the healing that functions as the foundation for a negotiated agreement.

Currently, the talk is more about the “best alternative to a negotiated agreement” (BATNA). For Azerbaijan, it is war, and for Armenia, it is status-quo.

The future of Nagorno-Karabakh would tell the Greater Caucasus region what to do in such complex situations — or, what not to do. That future, however, may not arrive this year.