Category: World Diary

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Health Communication World Diary

Can ‘Herd immunity’ Prevent It?

Courtesy: Copyright National Foundation For Infectious Diseases (NFID), USA. Used only for illustration purpose.

You probably heard the term ‘herd immunity’ (also called community immunity and herd or group protection) in relation to the coronavirus disease outbreak when some governments, including that of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, (are said to have) considered allowing herd immunity to develop on its own, without a vaccine, by letting the virus spread through their populations.

The argument was that though it might lead to a trail of deaths, the coronavirus would have left millions of recovered people with antibodies to fight it.

The chief science adviser to the UK government, Sir Patrick Vallance, said the country needed to “build up some kind of herd immunity — by having potentially 60% of the population (40 million people) contract COVID-19, as one of the “key things we need to do” — so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission”.

Later, however, Matt Hancock, the UK Secretary of State for Health, clarified that “creating so-called ‘herd immunity’ in the UK against coronavirus is not part of the Government’s plan for tackling the killer illness”.

Herd immunity happens when so many people in a community become immune to an infectious disease that it stops the disease from spreading.

The underlying scientific/medical argument is that

…individuals could gain immunity to the new coronavirus if they develop antibodies; that can happen through vaccination, or after they get infected and recover…

So, if enough people become immune, that can confer “herd immunity” to an entire population.

This protects even people who aren’t immune because so many others are immune that they prevent the virus from spreading within a community. Herd immunity would effectively end the coronavirus pandemic. Something like this:

Courtesy: Copyright National Foundation For Infectious Diseases (NFID), USA. Used only for illustration purposes.

It might not naturally occur to us that those who are infected with germs (e.g., viruses, bacteria) do not have the ability to infect infinite numbers of people. Individuals can remain contagious only for a limited time — before their own immune system clears the germ and they become non-contagious.

Equally, different germs require different doses of pathogen* to be transmitted in order to successfully infect another individual, and those that require higher doses may also require more prolonged contact to transmit infection.

[* A pathogen, broadly speaking, is anything that can produce disease. It can also be referred to as an infectious agent, or simply a germ.]

There has been past evidence for the emergence of herd immunity in other recent outbreaks.

In 2015, Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness caused an epidemic panic. Two years later, in 2017, there was no longer nearly so much to worry about. A Brazilian study found by checking blood samples that 63% of the population in the northeastern beach city of Salvador had already had exposure to Zika; the researchers speculated that herd immunity had broken that outbreak.

In a radically different environ, Norway is said to have successfully developed at least partial herd immunity to the H1N1 virus (swine flu) through vaccinations and natural immunity. Similarly, in Norway, influenza was projected to cause fewer deaths in 2010 and 2011 because more of the population was immune to it.

But the thing about such data is that there is not just as much of it as one might want to decisively conclude in one direction or the other.

For a population to achieve herd immunity, a certain proportion has to be immune. That proportion depends on how infectious a virus is, a measure called R0 (pronounce ‘r-naught’) — the average number of people that a victim passes the virus on to.

The more contagious it is, or the higher the ‘Ro’ is, the more people need to be immune for the infection rate to start falling.

For some diseases, herd immunity can go into effect with as little as 40 per cent of the people in a population becoming immune to the disease, such as through vaccination. But generally, a much higher percentage of a population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread.

For example, it has been found that 19 out of every 20 people must have the measles vaccination for herd immunity to go into effect and stop the disease. This means that if a child gets measles, everyone else in the population around them will most likely have been vaccinated, already have formed antibodies, and be immune to the disease to prevent it from spreading further. If that is not the case, and if there are more unvaccinated people around the child with measles, the disease could spread more easily because there is no herd immunity.

And therein lies the problem with the option.

There is no vaccine currently available for COVID-19. We never know when it might arrive. So, the only hope currently is to develop herd immunity via contracting the Coronavirus.

Supporters of the method argue that about 493,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus already, and it’s likely they are now resistant.

The counter is: What is the degree of immunity?

The world has no idea how long the affected (and recovered) will stay immune. (With some coronaviruses, as well as with ordinary flu, the immunity lasts less than a year.) Also, even if they stay immune for long (like, until the vaccine arrives), the world has no idea how long it would take to reach herd immunity.

It is also unclear how much protection antibodies confer on people who have recovered from COVID-19.

Some early research suggests that not all recovered patients develop coronavirus-neutralizing antibodies to the same degree. According to a report (that has not yet been peer-reviewed) from Chinese scientists, about 10 of 175 participants studied did not develop neutralizing proteins. This suggests they could have a higher risk of reinfection! 

That report too does not give enough knowledge. Nothing so far has.

So, perhaps (since we are not medical researchers or doctors), herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of COVID-19.

Once a vaccine is developed for this virus, establishing herd immunity could be one way in the future to help protect people in the community who are vulnerable or have low-functioning immune systems.

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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism Sport

England At The Ashes Look Like Deer Caught In Headlights

What was billed as a close Ashes series prior to the first Test at the Gabba in Brisbane has now been reduced to a one-horse race

After a day that saw Australia lose just one wicket and a relative Test rookie Mitch Marsh pile on an unbeaten 180, apart from the small matter of an unbeaten double century by Oz captain and the man of the moment Steven Smith, England assistant coach Paul Farbrace said, “We don’t have that extra pace and we haven’t got the highest quality of magical spin. We’ve got what we’ve got and we’ve had to work exceptionally hard”. An exaggerated version of the statement could well be, “We’ve got what we’ve got, we just have to learn to bat, bowl and field”.

Exaggerations are like that – outlandish. But they tend to convey the core import of a conversation.

England is not competing in the current Ashes, because England is “not playing”. The performances of its key stars, namely Alastair Cook, Joe Root, James Anderson, Stuart Broad, and Moeen Ali, can best be described by the reflexes of a deer caught in headlights. Make no mistake, that is not only half the English team, but the only half that is experienced enough to be leading a fight in a tough battle like an away Ashes series.

Alastair Cook, who played his 150th Test in Perth, has made a total of 83 runs in the six inningsat an average of 13.8 in the three matches so far. Captain Joe Root fared slightly better, scoring 175 at an average of 29. Amid a largely untested upper and middle half of the batting line up, these two fine batsmen were expected to lead the way for England. Lead they have not, scoring a grand total of 258 runs between them in the first three Tests.
Contrast the collective effort of the top English duo with Steven Smith alone’s 239 in the first innings of the third test, and you get the picture.

The bodies are toiling, the sweat is flowing, the shirts are getting dirty, but the brain just does not seem to be guiding them well.

At the other end, with Anderson, Broad, Voakes and Overton being different expressions of the same variety, the success of the English bowling depended a lot on the variety provided by their ‘number one spin bowler’, Moeen Ali. Alas, he fared just as bad as the batsmen mentioned earlier. In the six innings of the first three matches, Ali took a measly three wickets for 317 runs, at over 100 runs per wicket. In contrast, Australia’s number one spinner Nathan Lyon, till writing this piece, has taken 14 wickets for 347 runs at 24.7 runs apiece.

Clearly, the English team has not spoken with either the bat or the ball. Since ability cannot suddenly disappear overnight, it clearly seems to be a case of the heart not giving company to the body on the pitch.

Is it because of the controversy surrounding Ben Stoke’s exclusion from the Ashes party due to an altercation outside a Bristol nightclub in September, a little before the Ashes tour?

Did the incident during the early stages of the tour that involved England wicket-keeper Jonny Bairstow greeting Australian opener Cameron Bancroft in a bar in Perth with what eventually was termed as “non-malicious meeting of heads” add to the psychological chaos? After all, it was considered weighty enough to lead to a midnight curfew being imposed on the squad.

And then, there was the bizarre one of England batsman Ben Duckett being suspended pending an internal investigation by the ECB after he was involved in an incident at the same bar, in which he is believed to have poured beer over the head of James Anderson.

There’s a lot going on in a captain’s mind already. He certainly can do without such ungainly distractions. Bairstow indeed accepted prior to the third test that the off-field incidents have let Root down.

This is not to pin all the blame for the performance on the field to those incidents. It is just to say that the English brains do not seem clutter-free enough to be facing the Oz challenge. The bodies are toiling, the sweat is flowing, the shirts are getting dirty, but the brain just does not seem to be guiding them well. They know who and where they are, they see the Aussies coming hard at them, but they are not able to react to it.

Categories
Huffington Post (UK) Journalism Sport

Chelsea Need to Focus On January Transfers And Barcelona

Languishing 14 points behind leaders City, Chelsea would do well to shift focus to the Champions League, after due reinforcements in the January transfer window

Before their stumble in the away London derby game against West Ham, Chelsea had won six and drawn one of their previous seven matches, including the Alvaro Morata header-inspired 1-0 home victory over Manchester United.

And yet, the chances of retaining the League looked all but improbable even before the defeat to The Hammers because of Manchester City’s imperious form and its formidable fourteen-point lead over third-placed Chelsea. As things (read current form and points tally) stand, Chelsea – or any other team for that matter — can win the League only if City themselves decide to squander the advantage.
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte seemed to have thrown in the towel for the title race after the defeat at the London Stadium:

“When you lose four games my experience, my previous experience tells me that it’s impossible to fight for the title. In 16 games to lose four games it means the target must be another.”

But Chelsea supporters need not drop their shoulders. They should see this as an opportunity. With the League defence prospects all but evaporated, Antonio Conte can opt to give his all to the biggest one of them all – the Champions League.

Of course, a 1-1 home draw with Athletico Madrid at home in the last group stage match meant that Chelsea’s horror show in Rome has came back to haunt them, as they finished second in the group – and got paired with Barcelona in the 16 draw.

The first leg will take place at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday February 20 and Chelsea will travel to the Nou Camp on Wednesday March 14.

Not the best way to start the knock-out stage, right?

Yes; and no. Chelsea are one of the bogey teams for Barcelona, if you subscribe to the term. The 2011 Champions League Champions from London, who had broken Barcelona hearts with a come-from-behind win in the second leg of that year’s semi final at the Camp Nou, are unbeaten in the their last seven matches with the Catalan giants. How many teams boast of statistics like that!

The two sides have met 15 times previously, with the bragging rights being split almost unnaturally evenly – five wins apiece for the two sides and five draws. Beat that in terms of offering an even contest.

Barcelona manager Ernesto Valverde has already expressed his respect for the opposition and singled out the threat that Alvaro Morata poses to his side in the last-16 tie:

“It’s a tough draw for us because of the magnitude of the opposition. With the signing of Morata they’ve added pace in attack, while (Eden) Hazard is very good between the lines.”

What makes things very interesting in the meeting of the two former champions is the record of Lionel Messi. Royal blue goalpost is certainly his most favourite target. The five-time Ballon d’Or winner is yet to score against the reigning Premier League champions in his eight attempts thus far! And what do they say about all Messi teams – stop Leo and you win more than half the battle against Barca. Or some percentage of that.

Of course, it is never that straight-forward. But the point is, unlike what the ‘armchair (read “social media”) experts’ might tell you, this is a tie that can go either way.

Antonio Conte alluded to something similar in a press conference when he exhorted his players, especially the mercurial Eden Hazard, to go for it across the two legs against Barcelona:

“The tie will see Eden Hazard come up against Lionel Messi and Conte has issued a war cry to his most influential player and his team-mates. ’This type of game is a good chance for every player to show the right value, not only for Hazard, but for every player in the right way.”

Even prior to the clarion call by the boss, the Blues dressing room was prepared for the pairing – and is said to be not too daunted by the task ahead.

But if the assured calm needs to kick the talk on the pitch, there will have to be a couple of additions to the squad during the January transfer window. Conte has gone hoarse crying for reinforcements since the beginning of the season. With the Premier League defence probably gone, the Chelsea hierarchy might finally heed to the request.

But the simple action now could prove to be a tricky one – what with most A-listers would’ve already played the group stages of the Champions League, making them ineligible to play for Chelsea in this season. So, while a Sandro from Juventus is a must for the long term, short and mightily important objectives demand Chelsea augment their defence (David Luiz suspect and Antonio Rudiger and Gary Cahill both not the most reliable currently) and midfield (since Tiémoué Bakayoko clearly needs more time) with immense talents from sides that have not featured in this year’s Champions League.

Consider this – four very good matches out of the remaining seven, and Chelsea could actually be a champion. I know you are thinking, “if wishes were horses”. But the emphasis is not here on the number of matches. It is about how straight-forward, though not easy by any stretch of imagination, it is to plan – as against planning for 22 more matches in the Premier League.

By the time you read this, Chelsea would have already played Huddersfield Town at the John Smith’s Stadium. Another loss for Chelsea can really put everything at stake, but a win might offer precious little to change the eventual fate. And that is indeed the point of this piece.

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Huffington Post (UK) Journalism Sport World Diary

Chelsea Remains The Team To Beat

This article was first published on The Huffington Post (UK Edition) here.

If there was one message that rose above all the others after the engaging and edgy Premier League encounter between Tottenham Hotspurs and Chelsea at Wembley, it was that despite all the doomsayers pronouncements about disharmony and dejection at Stamford Bridge, the rest of the teams in the league would have to work desperately hard to take the trophy off Chelsea’s hands.

Chelsea’s defence organiser and captain Gary Cahill, midfield creator Cesc Fabregas and stand-alone genius Eden Hazard, were all missing – while new signing Tiemoue Bakayoko and last year’s hero Pedro were both far from 100% fit. Add to that a new boy up front, a new boy in the back three, and an old boy in a new position in the midfield – and you know why playing the last year’s runners-up was always going to be an exercise of having the back against the wall for Chelsea.

But that didn’t matter in the end. Because Chelsea proved to have something that only the real champions have – self-belief, tenacity, and an enormous sense of timing.

They went forward in the first seven or eight minutes and should have been a goal up if Morata had not missed a sitter by heading out a sublime cross by César Azpilicueta. Then, as they realised that Spurs were getting into the game, they decided to ‘allow their opponents to come to them’. And when got their second opportunity, they made the most of it with the man of the match Marcos Alonso scoring the first goal of the match via a sublime, world-class free kick. And then it was back in the trenches, till Mitchy Batshuayi scored an unfortunate own goal. With barely any time left, Chelsea went out again, got lucky because of first Hugo Lloris’ unfathomable throw straight down the middle and then bungling it decisively by letting Alonso’s shot from an angle under him.

That play was Chelsea manager Antonio Conte’s well thought-out switch to 3-5-2(Willian just behind Morata) from the last year’s 3-4-3.

The Italian had set up what is known as the catenaccio tactical system. In Italian, catenaccio means ‘door-bolt’, thereby implying closing any opportunities for the opponent to score. Well, one can argue that is another name for ‘Mourinho’s Parked Bus’. The difference is that in the case of Mourinho, it was a natural style for him for all seasons whereas Conte’s approach was a dire tactical response to a dire situation.

Conte used the catenaccio tactical system like most Italian teams are known (accused?) to use it – a counter-attacking option wherein the team sits back, hopes to get one or two chances to invade the opponent’s box, make use of the chances, and then apply the ‘door-bolt’ to things.

Mitchy almost spoiled it. But Alonso made sure that in the end, it worked out precisely as planned.

In other words, injuries, suspensions, and depleted squad size or not, Conte is not only aware of and open to a variety of tactical options but also has the ability to quickly drill them decisively into a team that has its own share of impetuous personalities. This, again, is something that only the real champions have in them.

The game on Sunday, the first-ever league game at the national stadium, typified the recent abrasive clashes between the London rivals. A red card looked round the corner at many stages of the match – with my Blues fans taking to social media to ask how Jan Vertonghen’s tackle on Victor Moses was any different from the one that saw Chelsea captain get a straight red in the match against Burnley. But it was amply clear to viewers that Chelsea players seemed to be under strict instructions from Conte to avoid getting a red fourth match in the running.

Just as one defeat was not the end of the world, one victory is not a panacea for Chelsea’s problems. The questions remain: Would Morata be able to fill the big shoes of Diego Costa? And hey, when is that saga going to end – before it starts affecting the dressing room in a major way? Is Bakayoko really an upgrade on Nemanja Matic? Where are the defence backups?

But if the victory at Wembley is anything go by, we can be sure that Chelsea are the champions of England not because of ideal circumstances of the previous season. They are champions because they can fight to win despite everything. And that’s why Antonio Conte’s Chelsea remains the team to beat.

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Huffington Post (UK) Reflection

Death Of A Pet

This post was first published on the Huffington Post (UK) here.

The final resting place

As with most mornings, I was reading the newspaper in bed while my pet turtle Tobi was in the water in his transparent plastic container by our bedroom window. This was his hour of basking in ‘passive sunlight’. But something felt different. I noticed that he was in an unusually calm floating state for a bit.

I tapped the container near his head: “Tobi, what’s the matter, buddy?“

He immediately responded by opening his mouth in a threatening manner – it looked an image straight from the Jurassic Park. Now, he was always the feisty one, but this one was a first. “Rascal,” I cursed him lovingly and went on to my business.

A few minutes later, when I returned to the room, he was in almost the same state. I knew something was wrong. I picked him out of the water to have a close look. Nothing. I put him on a flat surface – and for the first time, his neck mimicked his body and rested – limp – on the surface. Normally, he would have pulled back his neck into his shell when being put on the floor.

It was time to rush to his doctor.

It happened all so quickly that it is not difficult to see his arrival as an event of yesterday.

My daughter has long been persistent about having pets at home. So it was only a matter of time before we brought ‘something’ home. Fortunately, though, we managed to pull her ambitions significantly back from dinosaurs (well, not quite), to make her agree to the smallest and, what we imagined to be, the most manageable pet – a 40-gram, two-month-old red-eared slider turtle (terrapin) that could live in a small glass flask.

We might as well have gone for fish, but turtle seemed more exotic. Such was the discerning passion!

But once we bought him home, it was love at the first movement – what with the little brat being a feisty mover both in water and across the floor. We named him Tobi Rawat.

Soon, our individual and collective days began with “Good Morning Tobi“ and culminated in “Good Night Tobi“. We would talk with him incessantly. We really believed that he understood it all, and responded precisely with his movements and – hell – even facial expressions.

None of us would feel alone at home as long as Tobi was there, well, somewhere in the house.

He was an absolute box office too. His method of basking in afternoon sun was the stuff of legends. He would rest his body on his bottom shell (‘Plastron’), stretch out all his four limbs in the air, pull out his neck to the maximum and then, almost with disdain towards us lesser mortals, turn the neck on one side. He would then stay like that for many minutes, oozing copious amount of well-earned arrogance. Such swagger!

And then, that morning, he rested still, floating in the water.

It was time to rush to his doctor.

Dr Mugdha Rakshit, founder of the Happy Pets Clinic and alumni of the Royal Veterinary College, University of London, was quick to sense it after taking Tobi in her expert hands.

“What happened,” she asked me, without caring much for a reply. “He’s no longer there“.

I was shocked beyond my wits.

Almost at that instant, as the doctor worked her seasoned fingers and palms on the little one, Tobi moved ever so slightly and then opened his mouth.

Yes, just the way he did that at home when I had tapped his container.

“He’s gasping. Not entirely with a lot of life left within,” explained the doctor.

It became difficult for me to forgive myself when she said that Tobi probably had left us 30-45 minutes ago.

Did I leave him to die in the water – when he perhaps was gasping for life? There is no way I could’ve guessed. He was a water species. He was in the water.

“Maybe there was an insect bite or something and there was a hypersensitive reaction to it, causing perhaps a paralysis that caused him to drown in water.”

Perhaps. No tests were carried out to ascertain the absolute cause.

I sunk to an unknown low for a couple of days.

The doctor has since suggested that we go for another one.

I’m not so sure about that one.

For starters, I’m not at a place currently in life – emotionally – where I can withstand more such losses.

That apart, I’ve never been a ‘pets type of a person’. I can’t say with any sort of conviction if that is because of any philosophical reservations that I might be having at the sub-conscious level.

For instance, writing in the Journal of Philosophy, Jessica Du Toit of the Department of Bioethics, National Institutes of Health, USA, asks the question, “Is having pets morally permissible?“

It reads in line with many other similar voices. Presenting ‘The Case Against Pets’, Rutgers (USA) law professors Gary L Francione and Anna E Charlton argue that “domestication and pet ownership violate the fundamental rights of animals.”

In her line of reasoning, Du Toit says:

“[…] we need to consider whether (a) pets are harmed as a result of their being pets and, if so, whether these harms outweigh the benefits; and (b) pets are wronged as a result of their being pets“.

The argument – or the premise, if you will – becomes quite pertinent in the light of the fact that our doctor kept on reminding us, “management is the key”. ‘Right amount of sunlight’, ‘freedom to choose between water and basking on rough stones’ etc formed the key to ‘management’.

I believe we did just as well as anybody with that. But did we do just as Tobi would’ve wanted it? Precisely as he would’ve wanted?

Who can ever tell? And that might be the whole point of Du Toit and her community.

Tobi was with us for barely 11 months. At the risk of embarrassing myself, I just don’t quite feel the same after him. He weighed 60 grammes, just about filled my palm, and – from what I am told – he, as a species, couldn’t have been too keen on human interaction either.

So what explains this sinking feeling?

Did he, with his presence, help me plug a hole within, somewhere?

Tobi, buddy, I miss you. You were my first.

Categories
Huffington Post (UK) Journalism Sport

Chelsea And Conte Need To Transfer Faith, NOW

For the second consecutive game, Chelsea lost points due to a disjoint performance by an ill-equipped defence. That that would be the opening line about a Chelsea performance even in the new season reveals how little has changed in that department for the team; and how much the stagnation threatens to repeat the 2015/16 season.

Unlike their visit to Swansea, where Chelsea clearly were the better side and should have won despite the two comical goals against them, the game against Liverpool was more a tale of two halves. Chelsea simply did not turn up in the first half. Though it dominated possession in the second half, it just could not make the final kill. That would, in all fairness, mean that Liverpool were the better team in the first leg of the meeting between the two giants.

And yet, Liverpool did not win just because they were better; they also won it because Chelsea continue to be so poor in defence and organisation that they allow every ‘better’ to look ‘much better than actual’.

Unfortunately, that truth is a consequence of the bigger truth: Chelsea have been miserly in the transfer market and suffer from a dangerous fixation with the backline that looks eminently unreliable – after having served the club superlatively for the most part of the last decade.

While it might sound harsh to hold the first line of argument against Roman Abramovich, especially after the $1bn that he has spent on the club in the last decade, the truth is that Chelsea did indeed baulk at the transfer market prices for the second consecutive year – in comparison to, say, a Manchester United that was not afraid to break the bank for a single midfield player. So, in a way, it is indeed about buying new players too.

But the bigger reason, it seems, is the longstanding love relationship with the trio of John Terry, Gary Cahill, and most importantly, Branislav Ivanovic.

All three of them seem to be past their best years – at least in the Chelsea colours. Ivanovic was so off the pace and poor in the 2015/16 season that the social media was full of ridicule heaped upon him by fans, including Chelsea supporters. He no longer seems to be able to make telling crosses, nor can he make his long throws count anymore. On the wrong side of 30, he is not the quickest on the field too. Never renowned for technical craftsmanship, it is really surprising how he manages to hold his place so regularly in a team that is desperate for defensive robustness.

Ivanovic’s extended run probably owes to the fact that he generally does not catch the eye for what he does. That misfortune seems to prefer Cahill recently. Even though the referee missed a trick and did not call the foul on Cahill in the match against Swansea that cost Chelsea their second goal, the fact remains that he was less than assured in the game. Repeating his performance, his meek clearance push outside the box resulted in Jordan Henderson getting acres of space just outside the box, and scoring a sumptuous goal. Cahill too, like Ivanovic and some others in the Chelsea team, does not have the speed to handle the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Raheem Sterling et al.

John Terry is the only one amongst the three that could still be in the team – purely for his organisational skills. He is the ‘voice’ in the box. He is naturally wired to continuously have a look over his shoulder to get the ‘larger picture’, and direct his troops accordingly. It seems improbable that in Terry’s presence Chelsea would have left four Liverpool players open for a cross. Simply unthinkable.

But that is not to say that he is NOW not indispensable. If Chelsea had made the correct buys in the transfer market, Terry might not have started all the games. At his age, it would not have been the most insulting thing to happen either.

Yes, Chelsea and Conte need to now transfer faith. Maybe David Azpilicueta on the right, David Luiz in the centre, and Marcos Alonso on the left is not such a bad idea to start the next game with.